Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
